Original Article: http://dartreview.com/archives/1998/11/17/why_the_republicans_flopped.php
Tuesday, November 17, 1998
The Republican Party failed in this off-year election because it could not chew gum and walk at the same time. (That is what Lyndon Johnson once famously said in denigration of Gerry Ford's intelligence, notwithstanding that Ford had degrees from Michigan and Yale, institutions superior to any attended by Johnson.)
Anyway, the Republicans were preoccupied with the point that a man clearly guilty of multiple felonies and in violation of his oath to 'uphold the law' is eminently impeachable, that they forgot a number of salient issues, and conceded them to the Democrats.
The Democrats were united on a) education b) 'saving' Social Security, and c) reforming HMOs.
Democratic candidates, coast to coast, hammered on these three themes, and very effectively, because the Republicans largely ignored them. It did not matter that the Democrats had nothing persuasive to say about them. The public believed that the Democrats 'cared' about them.
On education, we now have in the budget funds for 100,000 new teachers. The fact of the matter is that even 1,000,000 new teachers would not necessarily improve education — it depends upon their competence and what they teach. And, anyway, the funding runs out after three years and then states are on their own. It's more midnight basketball, but Clinton 'cared.' The Republicans weren't even in the discussion.
They also let the Democrats get away with promising to 'save' Social Security — as if anyone wanted to 'destroy' Social Security. The question is one of whether the current 1936 system can be improved. Should payroll taxes continue to be invested in low-paying government bonds, or should some or all that money be income-productive through better investment? The GOP did not press this debate.
And you don't have to be Isaac Newton or Albert Einstein to come up with recommendations about adjustments to be made in the operation of the HMOs. After all, this is a new system, and is bound to have flaws. The Republicans allowed the Democrats to monopolize the issue.
If you don't fight, how can you win? The Republicans deserved the rebuke they got on November 3.
The vote, however, was far from indicating the strength on the part of Clinton. Exit polls showed that 40 percent of voters thought Clinton should resign. Twenty-one percent said they were voting against him, as against 18 percent voting for him.
Surprisingly, 55 percent of the voters in Al Gore's home state of Tennessee don't think he would make a good president. Polls show Gore loosing by more than ten points to George W. Bush.
This is a pretty unimpressive national administration.
But some of the important Republican campaigns were absolutely surreal. Senator Alfonse D'Amato, for example, accused Rep. Charles Schumer of missing votes in the House, of being a Tax-and-Spend liberal, and being soft on crime.
But everyone in New York knows that Schumer is a plodding workaholic who would crawl on his hands and knees to cast a vote that mattered, that he is not a far-out liberal and a big spender, and that he is tough on crime. D'Amato's campaign insulted the voters' intelligence. Schumer is not the 1984 Mike Dukakis, and Willie Horton is still in jail in Maryland.
Guided by Clinton and Dick Morris, as a matter of fact, many Democrats have coopted past conservative themes. Soft on crime? Clinton supports capital punishment and school uniforms and advocated putting 25,000 additional police on the streets.
Clinton signed, however reluctantly, Republican welfare reform. Clinton associates himself with a balanced budget (though this is an illusion, depending as it does on a temporary surplus in Social Security funds). Against Schumer, D'Amato ran a campaign that was ten years out of date.
Admittedly, D'Amato is a feral and unattractive character, but he could have played effectively to what actual strengths he possesses. After three terms in the Senate, he has seniority and seniority is power on key committees. He has been the sort of politician who brings home the bacon (federal money) for New York.
For his practicality he is known as 'Senator Pothole.' His slogans should have been 'Good for New York' and 'Seniority Pays.' This blunt appeal would have been crass, but of course no one has ever confused Alfonse with Pericles. It also would have been honest, after a fashion, and it's better to repair potholes than not.
In 1994, the Republicans agreed upon the famous 'Contract with America.' This gave them thematic identity, and in a historic upset they took control of the House for the first time since 1953. It did not matter that some of the terms of the Contract were, arguably, unwise. I am skeptical about term-limits. But even that is worth debate and consideration. The Republicans this year had no thematic identity and in fact seemed to flee the issues as if they were a contagious disease. The Democrats were virtually alone in the field with education, Social Security and HMOs.
Successful political campaigns almost always have a compact set of themes. In 1952, Eisenhower ran against 'Corruption, Communism, and Korea.' In 1960, Jack Kennedy ran against the (fictitious) 'missile gap,' against Castro 'ninety miles off our shore' and on promise to 'get America moving again' (translate: Ike is old and stodgy). These slogans were largely vacuous, but they sounded youthful and energetic, which was what the Kennedy campaign wanted to project.
They were more poetry than program, but poetry is part of politics too. What could Franklin Roosevelt have possibly meant when, in the depths of the Great Depression, he declared that 'We have nothing to fear but fear itself. If that means anything at all, what it means is false.
The demise of Dan Lungren in California was a minor surprise. A year ago he seemed to be a rising GOP Star, but his campaign against Gray Davis was almost non-existent. Talk about vacuousness. For the first time in sixteen years the Democrats have a governor in Sacramento. At least Gray Davis isn't Jerry Brown.
And there were some redeeming light moments, such as the upset election of a former wrestler, Jesse 'The Body' Ventura as Governor of Minnesota, running as a Perot populist, and the odd spectacle of an emerging Bush dynasty, the Bushes winning governorship races in Florida and Texas. Reportedly, when someone suggested to the former president that in 2000 it might be a Bush-Bush ticket, he replied that he wasn't sure he wanted to run again.