This Week's NFL PicksBy Andrew Ross | Saturday, November 9, 2002 Week 10 is here, the last week there will be any byes. I went 10-2-1 last week picking against the line, and 10-3 overall. Yes, I forgot to pick a game. Another Homecoming casualty. That brings my season record to 19-7-1 against the line, 29-12 straight up. I kind of feel like picking against the line isn't exactly as hard as it might seem at first. Picking against the line allows you to make riskier picks, because each is supposed to be 50/50 anyway. For example, no one would ever pick San Diego to lose last week, who would do that in their right mind? And when you're wrong, everyone gives you hell for it. But what do you have to lose by picking the Jets to cover? You're not saying they're going to win necessarily. If you took my advice and bet your tuition on Green Bay on Monday Night, you'd be a very rich person right now. No such guarantees this week.
Philadelphia seems like one of those teams that loses focus easily. Their past two weeks have not been dominating, and they might think that they have every right to overlook the Colts, because the Colts have looked horrible recently. But here's a stat, the Eagles are 0-2 against the AFC so far. And they are 0-2 against good quarterbacks—McNair and Brunell. Colt QB Peyton Manning is better than both of those. Other quarterbacks get nervous against that defense, Manning will not. So I will take the easy way out—the Eagles are definitely the better team. The Eagles will win and the Colts will cover.
Word on the street is that Raven LB Ray Lewis may be back for this game. I'm pretty confident that the Ravens will win this game and cover the spread. I think the Bengals got that win out of their system and will revert back to being a bad team. Remember, they beat the Houston Texans, who themselves had just come off a win. And Baltimore has been impressive the it's dismal first two weeks. Ravens to win and cover.
Green Bay looks like they are now the team to beat in the NFL. However, that's not necessarily a good thing. Let's look at some of the previous 'teams to beat' this season. The Raiders started 4-0 and then tanked at 0-5 St. Louis. The Dolphins, coming off a defeat of the Broncos in Denver, succumb to Buffalo at home. The Chargers, were 6-1 and looking dominant, but then they got shalacked at home by the Jets. Detroit has been a solid pick every week since Joey Harrington became the starting quarterback. Don't forget the Packers are coming off a short week of practice due to the Monday night game. I will pick the Packers to win and the Lions to cover. Harrington nearly knocked the Packers off in his first career start.
Undoubtedly two of the most boring teams to watch play football. The Giants are still in the thick of things in the NFC East, while the Vikings are long over and out. But they do play better at home. The Giants are always a little bit better in the second half of the season. I am going to go with the Giants to win and cover. I don't necessarily think they are that much better, but I do think they play harder and smarter. If they want to do anything this year, and they still can, they have to win games like this.
This game and the Rams/Chargers game are the two best of the day. This will be a huge challenge for Falcon QB Michael Vick. If he can overcome a day in Pittsburgh, he will truly be regarded as the real deal. Because of their bad start, every game for the Steelers is a big one. I really liken watching the Steelers to watching the 00 Ravens and the 01 Patriots—right now they seem to just know how to win. QB Tommy Maddox proves people wrong every week. The Falcons have actually run off 4 straight to go to 5-3 and put themselves in good wild card position. They almost let down last week, but didn't. I think they will this week—it takes a loss to really wake you up. I will pick the Steelers to win by more than the spread.
When was the last time a 6-2 team was an underdog to a 3-5 team? If the Rams win this game, they will finish with 9 wins easily, with games remaining against the Eagles and 49ers. The Jets proved that maybe the Chargers aren't that good. When looking at their log, one notices that they have not beaten any teams that have winning records. Denver is the only team with a winning record that they have played, and they lost to them pretty big. The Chargers slaughtered the Rams in preseason, but so did everyone else until 3 weeks ago. At first I was positive the Chargers would win, but now I'm not so sure. But I will still pick them to cover, and the Rams to win.
The Titans, like the Steelers, have already recovered from a very slow start to be in first place after 8 games. I think the Titans are determined to make a push this year. They seem to be doing it under the radar because everyone forgot about them after their 4 game losing skid earlier. This game will say a lot about Houston. They were embarrassed by the Bengals last week. Will they roll over and die this week? I don' think so. But that doesn't mean I don't think they'll lose by less than 10 points. Give me the Titans to win big. I think the Titans would be embarrassed if they lost this game by less than 10 points.
I understand that Carolina might have been decent earlier this year, but I do not understand how they are only 4.5 point underdogs. They have lost 5 games straight (although they covered in 3 of those games). New Orleans has an offense that can score with and on anyone in the league. Carolina's offense is woeful to say the least. In my opinion, this could get ugly. Both teams are coming off byes, so that will not be a factor. The Saints will win big.
I don't think the Redskins will win the Super Bowl, or the division, but I do think they are a very good football team. I think they are better than the Giants. The 4 teams that the Redskins have lost to—Eagles, 49ers, Saints, Packers—are all just better football teams. But the Redskins do beat the teams they should beat. Jacksonville has not looked very good since starting 3-1 (4 straight losses actually). And RB Fred Taylor limped off the field on Sunday night. He might be fine, but I still don't think much of the Jaguars. I think the Redskins will win this game.
Here's another boring game. I'll say the same thing I said last week—the Seahawks have no confidence in QB Matt Hasselbeck and he has no confidence in himself. Arizona is still hanging around at 4-4. I really have nothing much to say about either of these two teams because neither are worth my time. So I'll just go ahead and pick the Cardinals to win and cover. They already beat the Seahawks 24-13 in Seattle, I don't see how they could lose this game at home. They, like the Redskins, take care of the teams they should and lose to those that are better than them.
I think the Patriots are back on track. The Bears have lost 6 straight. The Patriots victory last week was really impressive. The Bears have continued to show that yes, they were a fluke last year. I'm still waiting for the Bears to jump up and bite someone but it won't be this week. The reason is that the Patriots know they cannot afford to overlook anybody. Every game is important right now if they want to make the playoffs. I'm going with the Patriots to win big.
I don't buy all that ESPN stuff that says based on their stupid formula the Chiefs should win the Super Bowl. But I do think that 6 points is too many to give them here. San Francisco has proved that they are solid—nothing more, nothing less. No big wins for them so far, just wins against other solid teams. I think a look at common opponents is of interest here because the Raiders played the Chiefs two weeks ago and the 49ers last week. The Chiefs are bigger rivals for the Raiders because they have played each other twice a year for 40 years. The Chiefs won 20-10, the 49ers won 23-20 in OT. When it mattered, the 49ers could not stop the Raiders offense. I think the 49ers are due for a letdown maybe, I'll just go ahead and pick the big upset, Chiefs to win.
Miami won the first game, 30-3. But that was back in September, when the Dolphins are always good, and back when QB Jay Fiedler was healthy. Since when is Jay Fielder more valuable than Kurt Warner? Or is Ray Lucas just that bad? In his defense, he didn't play that bad against Green Bay, the rest of the team failed him. But the Jets have played solidly the last 4 games. And before this year, the Jets were 8-0 versus the Dolphins the last 4 years. So I will take the Jets to win and to cover.
I follow the Raiders closer than I follow any other team in football, and I have no idea whey they are being given only 5 points. I thought they at least needed 8 or 9. They have lost their last 4, and they have not won in Denver in the last 6 or 7 years. They have a tough time playing the Broncos in Oakland to say the least. Until the Raiders throw the ball deep and run the ball at the defense, they will continue to lose. I have to say it. Don't ever tell anyone I said this, but I cannot realistically pick the Raiders even to cover this week. Go with the Broncos to win big. |
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