This Week's NFL PicksBy Andrew Ross | Saturday, November 16, 2002 If you didn't get around to checking out my picks last week, thank you, because I did pretty badly. I ended up 6-7-1 against the line, and 8-5-1 straight up, bring my season totals to 25-14-2 and 37-17-1 respectively. I definitely cooled down after a torrid Week 9, but I guess I didn't do that horrible. This week marks the return of the 16 game weekend schedule, which should make flipping through the Sunday Ticket that much more entertaining. There aren't that many eye-opening games, besides the Raiders game. Saints-Falcons is also a solid watch. Part of the problem is that since everybody seems to be 5-4 or 4-5, it just isn't possible to see a match-up of two teams with great records. Here goes nothing. GREEN BAY (-7) AT MINNESOTA The Packers have not played well in Minnesota recently, and Packer QB Brett Favre isn't the same on AstroTurf as he is no real grass. But I really don't care. I think the Vikings are one of the worst teams in the league. I have a feeling that Green Bay will come out on fire because they know that if they win this game, they will set the league record for clinching their division the earliest ever. Is Viking QB Dante Culpepper really that good? When was the last time you remember watching the Vikings play with heart? The Packers started the season 0-4 vs. the line but have won their last 5. This seems like a year they could steal a Super Bowl. The Pack will win big.
I guess everyone is jumping on the Falcon bandwagon. One interesting side note: because the Falcons have that tie, wild card tie breakers no longer matter for them since it is extremely doubtful that there will be another tie this season, so no other team will have their same record. The Saints definitely underestimated the Falcons last time, but I don't think they will this time (they're not even favored this time). I think the Saints are the better team, I think they are not favored to win because everybody is on the Falcon bandwagon. They looked lackluster last week because everyone looks lackluster against the Panthers and they were coming off a bye. The Saints will win on Sunday.
Memo to the Bengals—Cleveland is a lot better than Houston. If you haven't heard, at least one Bengals player has predicted a Bengals victory on Sunday (they did this 2 weeks ago against the Texans and it worked). Is this even that much of a rivalry? The Browns probably didn't even care until they got called out. The Browns are a decent team still in the hunt for a wild card. The Bengals are the worst team in the NFL. Cleveland will stomp all over Cincinnati.
Entering last week's game against the Eagles, the Colts were 1-7 against the line. That is the only explanation that I can think of for the Colts only being favored by 7 here. They are playing at home against the Cowboys. Dallas has lost 3 in a row to the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Lions. They are going nowhere but down. Their quarterback situation is a mess and a joke. The Colts should dominate and win by more than 7.
I think this game will be extremely entertaining to watch. Both teams have run and gun offenses and pretty porous defenses. Buffalo has the better record but Kansas City has played a brutal schedule. Every team the Chiefs have played this year has been against a team that right now has at least 4 wins. The Bills are 0-2 against the AFC West, the Chiefs are 2-1 against the AFC East. The Chiefs bring it every week. To me, it just seems like the Bills are the more intimidating team to play, but the numbers all point to the Chiefs being a better team. So I'm taking the Chiefs to win big. This game is a toss up, and that's why it should be fun to watch.
Dolphin QB Jay Fiedler is still out, and there is a chance that Raven LB Ray Lewis will return. The Ravens have won 6 out of their last 7 against the line, and Miami has lost every game since losing Fiedler. Whether or not Lewis plays, I am going to go with the upset and pick the Ravens to win here. A Miami loss here, though, would really hurt the Dolphins playoff hopes. A Baltimore victory keeps them alive. I have been impressed with Raven QB Jeff Blake, and believe it or not, the Ravens have actually been a decent team this year.
What makes some of these games hard to pick is the desperation factor. A Redskin loss here would give them 6, and force them to win their last 6 to make the playoffs. Giant Coach Jim Fassel seems to know how to get his team to play well enough to hang around, both in games, and in the playoff hunt. The Giants special teams will cost them a game this season. Fassel seems to have been messing around with changing kickers and punters a little too much. They better get used to sticking the ball in the end zone soon. The weather is supposed to be bad, so I will pick the Giants to win big, even though they are both pretty pass happy teams. The Giants win ugly every time they win, so ugly weather should suit them fine.
How bad did the Eagles look last week getting dominated by the Colts? Not as bad as the Cardinals looked getting dominated by the Seahawks. You would have to be taking some pretty good drugs to believe that Arizona has any shot to win this game. But I am picking the Eagles to win and the Cardinals to cover. For whatever reason, the Cardinals always bring a pretty good game up to Philadelphia. Since beating the Bucs, the Eagles have not looked very good. Something just does not look right with them.
Another game where the winner puts itself in great position to make the playoffs and the loser leaves itself a lot of work to do. I think the Steelers are looking like a real contender again with the advent of starting QB Tommy Maddux. Tennessee is still the frontrunner in the weak AFC South. I just think that the Steelers are on a big roll. I think RB Jerome Bettis is old and slow, and that Amos Zeroue is more than an apt replacement. I'm taking the Steelers to win big.
I think this is the week the Chargers get back on track. I am not impressed with the 49ers that much. That was the worst team in the AFC West that they barely beat by 4 at home. Now they travel to San Diego and are underdogs. We will see what kind of effect Charger Coach Marty Schottenheimer has on his team. I think in recent years, they would fold up. But with a smashmouth running game and a smashmouth defense I don't see that happening this time. The 49ers have yet to turn in one convincing game against solid competition. San Diego pulls a mild upset.
A rematch of a Buc 12-9 victory 3 weeks ago. Tampa Bay is already in great position for the playoffs. The Panthers will be hurting and distracted by the suspension of DE Julius Peppers (he still might play anyway if he is appealing). The Panthers have lost 6 in a row (although they have covered in half of those), they have nothing to play for, and they are facing a dominant Buccaneer team. The Bucs will win big.
Denver was yet another team that fell victim to a desperate team last week. And I have no idea what got into the Seahawks that made them play so well in Arizona. Still, the Broncos are one of the best teams in the league, and this is the kind of game they will win big. Denver Coach Mike Shanahan will not let his team get in a rut.
Believe it or not the Jets are back at .500 if they win this game. I think this game features 2 pretty evenly matched teams showcasing young developing stars at quarterback, which should make it fun to watch. Both teams generally bring it every week (although the Lions made me look bad by rolling over and dying last week in Green Bay). I am picking the Jets to win big, just because they could get back in the playoff race if they win.
Houston should have confidence after already winning in Jacksonville earlier—now they get the Jaguars in Houston. The Jaguars are an impossible team for me to figure out. But they did look pretty good beating up the Redskins last week. Meanwhile, the Texans held their own in Tennessee. But I am picking the Jaguars to win big, because I don't think Jaguar coach Tom Coughlin will let his team be swept by an expansion team. The Jaguars need to prove that their initial loss to the Texans was only a fluke.
Patriot QB Tom Brady better watch his neck, back, ankles, and knees in Oakland this weekend. One thing that I think really fires up the Raiders is the fact that 5 Patriot losses would really, really hurt their playoff chances, especially with everyone else in their division being within one game. The Raiders were pleased with their Monday night victory, but were quick to assert that it would mean nothing without a victory on Sunday night. I don't see the Raiders blowing out the Patriots. And 3.5 is a small spread, but I will pick the Patriots to cover and the Raiders to win.
Chicago has looked pretty bad ever since starting 2-0 (they've lost every game since) but they have covered each of the past 2 weeks against spreads that were smaller than the one they are getting this week. I just have the feeling that the Rams will think they have this game won before they even start playing, while for the Bears this is a chance to show the country that they can play football if they want to. RB Marshall Faulk's injury is a big distraction. If he plays, he will not be 100% anyway. I am just going to pick the Rams to win and the Bears to cover. I would not be surprised if the Bears jumped out to take a lead off Rams mistakes in the first half only to lose the game in the 4th quarter. To recover from an 0-5 start and make the playoffs is asking for a lot of concentration from the Rams, and I think they will be caught relaxing a bit here. |
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