This Week's PicksBy Andrew Ross | Saturday, November 23, 2002 Last week I ended up 8-8 vs. the line and 12-4 picking winners. It appears I might be slowing down a little bit. Like Rams Coach Mike Martz, I might be letting early success go to my head. Overall I am 33-22-2 against the line, and 49-21-4 picking winners. Picking winners is easy though, I don't really care about that as much—if you just picked the favorite in every game you would probably go 12-4 every time. I'll stop wasting your time and start picking games.
Baltimore's lack of talent is starting to catch up with them. They're not that good. They probably are a better team with Jeff Blake—at the least they're not a worse team. I think the Titans are looking legitimate. They have won 5 in a row, and yet again this is a year anybody can make it—there are no real unbeatable teams out there right now. If the Titans win, they will probably take over first by themselves in the AFC South, as the Colts will probably lose in Denver. I know the Titans have had their problems with Baltimore (see the 2000 season), but this is a different year—Titans will win big.
The Panthers have lost 7 in a row. They may have covered once or twice in those 7 losses but they are still given these small lines against significantly superior competition. I think the people in Vegas must expect letdowns when teams come to play Carolina. The Falcons could make a run this year in the playoffs. I'm going to go with the Falcons to win big.
The Bears have lost 8 straight but have covered 3 times in a row. Detroit was looking pretty solid but they seem to be slowing down. But they did beat the Bears a few weeks ago. So both teams are pretty bad. The Bears are in a downward spiral, the Lions at least have no real pressure because they are playing for next year. I'll go with the Lions to win; the Bears are playing to draft Byron Leftwich next year.
Dallas will win this game. Some weeks they play a solid game and come away with a victory. The Jaguars are very streaky. Technically, they are still alive—they are only one off the division lead. But they are still not a great team by any stretch of the imagination. Cowboys pull of an upset.
This is the game of the week. Both teams rebounded nicely last week. The winner keeps its strong position in the playoff race. I really don't know what to say besides the obvious I've said before about both teams. Although Dolphins QB Ray Lucas has picked up his game recently, albeit against a week Ravens team. I'm going to go with the Dolphins to win this by more than 3, although I wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being a push, but I can't write that. Chargers might be a little overrated, and those cross country trips are always tough to deal with.
The Saints showed no heart last week. I just have a feeling the Saints will show up for this game a little cocky. The possible absence of RB Deuce McAllister would really hurt. Even if he does play he will not be himself. The Browns are still kind of in the race—I think they'll come in, play hard, cover the spread, and lose to the Saints.
As bad as the Jets were at the beginning of this season, they still beat the Bills in Buffalo. And now the Jets are climbing back in the race, and the Bills are falling out. The winner stays in the race, the loser is out of it. It seems like every game this week features two teams with the same record. Like the Lions, I think the Jets are playing for next year. At the same time, the Bills want and need to win now. I think QB Drew Bledsoe leads the Bills to victory.
The Bengals are really really bad. This game is only interesting to see how Kordell Stewart will play replacing Tommy Maddox. They really seemed to pick it up at the end of the Titans game. The game plan will probably be simple enough for Stewart. I have a feeling this game will be very low-scoring—but I still feel the Steelers will score enough to cover this game.
Another game between two teams with the same records. This could decide home field advantage for the NFC playoffs. The winner not only has one more win than the loser, but also the tie-breaker (head to head). Green Bay slipped up a little bit, Tampa Bay has won 3 straight. The key to this game will be turnovers—Tampa's offense will not score many points. If the Pack scores on defense, there will be a lot of pressure on the Buc offense, and if the Buc defense scores, there will be that much less pressure on the Buc offense. I know the Pack has not played well in the Tampa recently. For some reason, I see Favre and RB Ahman Green holding onto the ball and scoring enough points to win.
I think the Seahawks have nothing to play for and in addition are one of the worse teams in the league. The Chiefs, and I know I say this every week, do not ever have a let down game. That I guess shows that Chiefs Coach Dick Vermeil is a good motivator. I know I've said this several times already, but the Chiefs are still in the playoff hunt, albeit barely. The Chiefs will dominate this game and win by a lot of points.
The Raiders are looking pretty good right now, while the Cardinals are looking pretty bad. The Cardinals were a pretty bad team last year team, but they beat the Raiders in Oakland. I'd be a lot more confident about the Raiders right now if they had a running game of any kind. What they can do is convert short yardage situations though, which is important. The Raiders offense requires such a high level of concentration that I can see it taking a day off. But the defense is looking good again, so they won't let the team lose. Raiders to win, Cardinals to cover.
Last year the Redskins started the season 0-5 and then reeled off 5 straight wins, just like the Rams this year. Last year, the Redskins lost their 11th game, to go to 5-6. If you look at the Rams past 5 victories, most of them have been against pretty weak competition, and they haven't looked exactly overpowering. Of course, Redskins coach Steve Spurrier inspires little confidence with his continual quarterback musical chairs. I was leaning towards picking an upset, but with another new starting quarterback in Washington, I will pick the Rams to win this, and the Redskins to cover.
I know the Giants win ugly all the time, and I know they have not won a game by more than 7 points this season. But Sunday will be different. The Giants to not look like a Super Bowl contender, but a win on Sunday, coupled with a probable Eagle loss to the 49ers on Monday Night, would vault them into a first place tie in the NFC East. For this reason, I think they will come out pretty fired up, and win in Houston big. Houston has gone 5-2 against the line in their last 7 though. But all of those lines were bigger than this one.
Denver is 0-3 so far this season on National TV, 7-0 off of it. This is the Sunday Night game. The Colts have been picking it up recently. I don't think Bronco backup Steve Buerlein is as good as starter Brian Griese, and the absence of TE Shannon Sharpe hurts Denver. I think this might make the Bronco offense a little more predictable than usual. And the Colts are coming off a near shut out of Dallas and a pretty solid outing against the Broncos. I am going to pick the Broncos to win and the Colts to cover.
This is another Monday Nighter that looked good at the beginning of the season, and even looked good until last Sunday. I do not see the Eagles keeping this game close at all. I am surprised the line is not a lot bigger. I know the 49ers have not looked as dominant as maybe they could have this season, but the Eagles are nothing without McNabb. This could be ugly. The 49ers should win this by a lot more than 7. |
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