Original Article: http://dartreview.com/archives/2005/04/22/a_democrats_take_on_the_gop_for_08.php
Friday, April 22, 2005
It's always been my theory that the further away an election is, the more fun it is to speculate on the race. Working from that premise, a brief handicapping of the 2008 Republican presidential primary follows:
The Definites
Of about 15 people considered to be possible candidates for the nomination, only a few are considered very likely to make the race. They are Sen. Bill Frist (Tenn.), Sen. George Allen (Va), and Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.).
Sen. Bill Frist (Tenn.)
Pros: Gold-plated resume/life story as world-class cardiac surgeon turned Senate Majority Leader. Handsome, as is his family.
Cons: Awful stump speaker. Has had a difficult time navigating the Senate as Leader, from early mistake selling out the conservative base on the 2003 tax cut to the recent incident in which he suggested a diagnosis of Terri Schiavo via videotape.
Sen. George Allen (Va.)
Pros: Reagan-esque gift for communicating in speeches; Bush-esque gift for relating to people one-on-one. Proven fundraising skills. Varied legislative/executive experience as Congressman, Governor, and Senator. No presidential candidate in modern history boasts such a resume. Hasn't stayed put anywhere long enough to become "entrenched" or "stale."
Cons: Thin legislative record in both House and Senate. Little national name recognition.
Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.)
Pros: Attractive, charismatic, reputation as doer after cleaning up the 2002 Olympic scandal. Some national name recognition due to father's presidential bid. Has shown ability to win in a Democratic state. Cleverly earned early chits by contributing to 2004 candidates in early primary states like Michigan and South Carolina.
Cons: Governor of Massachusetts, not a popular state among Republican primary voters. Tension between governing a more liberal state and having national ambitions has resulted in muddied positions, particularly on social issues.
The Maybes
There is a much larger group of people who are considering the race but have more significant obstacles to their candidacies, including former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani; Senators John McCain (Ariz.), Chuck Hagel (Neb.), Rick Santorum (Penn.), and Sam Brownback (Kan.); and Governors Mark Sanford (SC) and Tim Pawlenty (Minn.).
Former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani (New York City)
Pros: Leading early national polls as a result of 9/11 afterglow. Image as tough crime-fighter who cleaned up what was once considered an unmanageable city.
Cons: Baggage from nasty public divorce and close association with failed Homeland Security nominee Bernard Kerik. Liberal positions on abortion and gay rights, while not currently well-known by primary voters, would be the subject of attacks by socially conservative opponents.
Sen. John McCain (Ariz.)
Pros: National name recognition, currently running second in most 2008 polls. Reputation as reformer, along with his story of heroism in Vietnam and personal charisma make him a potentially strong candidate. National fundraising base. Almost sure to win a general election because of demonstrated cross-over support.
Cons: Campaign finance reform legislation bearing his name did not endear him to conservative primary voters. Reputation as maverick, which typically does not play well among Republican primary voters who tend to nominate establishment candidates.
Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.)
Pros: McCain-lite, complete with Vietnam service. Record of success as self-made businessman. National security policy expertise. Rugged, articulate, and telegenic.
Cons: Well-earned reputation as maverick after criticizing the administration on several occasions. Probably will not run if McCain runs, as they would be targeting a similar niche.
Sen. Rick Santorum (Penn.)
Pros: Nationally known for strong conservative views on cultural issues such as gay marriage and abortion. Young and attractive; has shown surprising ability to win as an uncompromising conservative in Democratic areas.
Cons: Is not associated with any significant legislation, although he has been a prominent fighter on issues important to social conservatives. Sometimes is undisciplined with the media; tends to get himself in hot water.
Sen. Sam Brownback (Kan.)
Pros: Strong social conservative positions have given him credibility with evangelical Christians. Surprisingly charismatic, possesses a great sense of humor that may help in retail campaigning in early primary states.
Cons: Almost completely unknown; hails from one of the five most Republican states in the Union. Has not demonstrated ability to raise the type of money necessary to mount winning presidential campaign.
Gov. Mark Sanford (SC)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minn.)
Pros: Young, fresh-faced, and telegenic, both can point to records as executives that legislators cannot match (which has historically been important to voters).
Cons: Nationally unknown except to Beltway types. National fundraising would be a challenge for both.
The Unlikelys
Most of these folks are either so damaged that they are unlikely to mount credible candidacies, or simply unlikely to run for personal reasons. They are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.), Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice (Al.), and Governors Jeb Bush (Fla.), George Pataki (NY), and Bill Owens (Co.).
Former Rep. Newt Gingrich (Ga.)
Pros: National name recognition; widely renowned for brilliance as strategist; policy expertise in health care, defense, and other areas.
Cons: Can you spell B-A-G-G-A-G-E?
Sec. Condoleeza Rice
Pros: Widely respected as first black woman to be National Security Adviser and Secretary of State. Would be interesting counter-point to likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Cons: No experience as a candidate; pro-choice stance; few if any stated positions on other domestic issues.
Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.)
Pros: Do we need to even say "national name recognition?" Widely seen as the smartest of the Bush brothers. Hails from the ultimate swing state.
Cons: Family baggage involving his wife's evasion of customs taxes and his daughter's drug use. Appearance of dynastic hand-off.
Gov. George Pataki (NY)
Pros: Didn't people used to think he had some positive attributes?
Cons: Plummeting popularity in New York City; little visibility nationally; a Giuliani candidacy would make it impossible for him to run.
Gov. Bill Owens (Co.)
Pros: Once highly touted by national conservative groups for his tax cutting and staunch social conservatism.
Cons: Difficult to run as the family values candidate immediately after your marriage breaks up.
Although Giuliani and McCain lead early polls, I doubt either will ultimately emerge as the nominee, because both are viewed with suspicion by the party's conservative activist base. The only circumstance that could lead to the nomination of McCain, in my opinion, would be the entrance into the race of several (four to five) credible candidates who would split the vote of religious conservatives, along with the absence of another prominent moderate candidate (i.e., Romney). I believe the nominee will be the candidate around whom the party's more conservative base coalesces, and even though he is currently almost unknown nationally, my gut feeling is that Virginia's George Allen sunny optimism will remind people of Ronald Reagan and help him emerge as the 2008 Republican nominee. And from this Democrat's perspective, that's a good thing: please, anybody but McCain!