Burns Lectures on Future of Iraq

By Weston R. Sager | Friday, October 31, 2008

On October 21, Pulitzer prize winning New York Times London Bureau Chief, John Burns, delivered a talk entitled “Five Years in Iraq: Which Way Home?” Burns is visiting Dartmouth with the Montgomery Fellows program, which brings distinguished individuals to the College.

This year, the program brought lecturers who were offering perspectives of America in 2008. Among the other featured Fellows were Joan Didion and former CENTCOM Commander General John Abizaid.

Burns came to campus to share his experiences in Iraq. For several decades, Burns has been touring the most war-torn regions of the world, acting as a witness and scribe for the benefit of New York Times readers.

Burns gave an even-handed account of Iraq and Afghanistan. Burns’ amiable demeanor, wild curly gray coif, and humorous anecdotes perfectly balanced the heavy subject matter that he was discussing.

As a seasoned reporter who has been stationed in some of the most dangerous locales, including the former Yugoslavia, China, Afghanistan, and most recently Iraq, Burns was able to deliver his assessment of U.S. foreign involvement in the Middle East and Central Asia with remarkable candor.

Burns was stationed in Iraq since before the onset of war in 2003. He has been witness to the developments on the ground there for quite some time, and observed that the situation in Iraq has stabilized remarkably over the past year.

Burns acknowledged that the Iraq War has cost America greatly in both money and lives of Americans and Iraqis, but he was “astonished” by the change that has occurred there recently. He cited evidence that violence in Iraq is down roughly 70% and violence in and around Baghdad is down roughly 80%. He gave much of the credit for this turnaround to General David Petraeus, who helped retool the American army into what Burns believes is now the greatest counter-insurgency force in history.

He also credited the surge, which up to this point has been a success. Still, Burns was quick to point out that General Casey, the former Commanding General in Iraq, was not the failure that many have accused him of being. A lot of “luck” had to do with the recent improvements in Iraq, Burns said, something that was sorely missing in years prior.

Burns also provided some insight into how to accurately assess progress in the region.

“Opinion polls in countries like Iraq mean nothing,” Burns said; years upon years of intimidation from Saddam Hussein’s regime all but preclude honest responses from the public. Instead, Burns advised looking at significant events, such as the removal of blast walls between neighborhoods and the countrywide support of the Iraqi soccer team as indicators of progress.

Burns called into question several popular assumptions, namely the idea that American intervention against despotic regimes is, in fact, unwise.

He also defended the weapons of mass destruction intelligence debacle, claiming that Saddam would have resumed the production of these weapons if he had been capable. Burns unabashedly defended the use of American forces as peacekeepers in the world, believing that this nation’s armed forces are a vital instrument of peace.

Though Burns’ view of Iraq was positive, his assessment of Afghanistan was disquieting. Burns believes that the recent violence indicates that that country is heading toward an era of violence similar to the one that afflicted Iraq before the surge.

Unless greater numbers of troops are deployed to Afghanistan, he argued, the situation will continue to deteriorate. He made a bold prediction that in the next election cycle, large crowds will be protesting the war in Afghanistan in front of the White House.

Whether or not that will be the case, it appears that much work still needs to be done in that region before American armed forces can begin to return home in significant numbers.

Burns’ talk gave a hopeful yet sobering snapshot of the situation in the Middle East. Good-natured, self-deprecating, and eccentric, Burns is a first-class reporter whose efforts will go down in the annals of history.

Burns Lectures on Future of Iraq

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