Coz We Won’t Be Happy ‘Till We’re Filibuster-Proof

Yep, Campaign 2004 began yesterday, folks. A quick look at who’ll be up for re-election. It seems, from this vantage point, that whether we gain or lose depends on who decides not to run. Daschle’s virtually certain not to run for the Senate — either because he’ll be running for president or because he’s a loser.

First, the bad news. I put 11 Dems as either safe or likely safe, as compared to only 8 GOPers. That’s not great. We also have 5 “leaning safe” to their 3. There are 3 Dems and 2 GOPers about whom I don’t know enough to make any guesses (actually, that goes for all of these senators, but this is fun so leave me alone).

Now, the good news. The Dems will field 19 people, the GOP only 15. (You’ll remember that, this year, we had 20 senators up for reelection, while the Dems had only 13.) Plus, while I can’t foresee any Republicans retiring, I can easily see at least two Democrats retiring: Fritz Hollings (D., SC) and Tom Daschle (D., Moscow). (Then again, I didn’t think that Fred Thompson or Phil Gramm would retire, either.) Lastly: coattails, coattails, coattails!

Enjoy.

Senators Up for Re-Election in 2004:

Democrats:

Bayh, Evan (IN) (Safe)

Boxer, Barbara (CA) (Safe)

Breaux, John (LA) (Who Knows)

Daschle, Thomas (SD) (May Retire, Thank God)

Dodd, Christopher (CT) (Likely Safe)

Dorgan, Byron (ND) (Who Knows)

Edwards, John (NC) (Likely Safe)

Feingold, Russell (WI) (Likely Safe)

Graham, Bob (FL) (Leaning Safe)

Hollings, Ernest (SC) (May Retire)

Inouye, Daniel (HI) (Safe)

Leahy, Patrick (VT) (Safe)

Lincoln, Blanche (AR) (Leaning Safe)

Mikulski, Barbara (MD) (Safe)

Miller, Zell (GA) (Leaning Safe)

Murray, Patty (WA) (Likely Safe)

Reid, Harry (NV) (Likely Safe)

Schumer, Charles (NY) (Safe)

Wyden, Ron (OR) (Who Knows)

Republicans:

Bennett, Robert (UT) (Safe)

Bond, Christopher (MO) (Likely Safe)

Brownback, Sam (KS) (Likely Safe)

Bunning, Jim (KY) (Likely Safe)

Campbell, Ben Nighthorse (CO) (Leaning Safe)

Crapo, Mike (ID) (Leaning Safe)

Fitzgerald, Peter (IL) (Leaning Safe)

Grassley, Chuck (IA) (Who Knows)

Gregg, Judd (NH) (Who Knows)

McCain, John (AZ) (Clinically Insane)

Murkowski, Frank (AK) (Safe)

Nickles, Don (OK) (Safe)

Shelby, Richard (AL) (Likely Safe)

Specter, Arlen (PA) (Leaning Safe)

Voinovich, George (OH) (Leaning Safe)