NH Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Speak at Dartmouth

On Wednesday, May 22, the Nelson A. Rockefeller Center for Public Policy, the Dartmouth Democrats, the NH Young Democrats, and the NH College Democrats hosted a gubernatorial forum with the 2024 Democratic candidates for New Hampshire governor. The three declared candidates, Mayor Joyce Craig of Manchester, Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, who represents the Upper Valley, and businessman Jon Kiper, who has previously served in Newmarket town government, were in attendance. 

The three candidates are vying for the Democratic nomination following current Governor Chris Sununu’s decision to not seek reelection to a fifth term. Sununu, one of the most popular governors in the country, has handily defeated Democratic challengers on numerous occasions since he first narrowly won in 2016. His decision to forgo another term presents Democrats with their best chance to win back the governorship in years. 

On the Republican side, former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and former NH Senate President Chuck Morse are the main contenders. Early polling conducted by Emerson College suggests that Ayotte enjoys an advantage, at least early on, against both Craig and Warmington in the general elections, likely due in part to the fact that Ayotte served as a prominent senator, albeit years ago, and still boasts considerable name recognition. Ayotte herself lost by extremely-narrow margins to then-Governor and current Senator Maggie Hassan. Most major elections analysts consider the 2024 governor race a tossup.

The candidate forum hosted at Dartmouth was framed from the outset as a chance for Democrats to make their case to young voters in the state. Jay Bowie, the president of New Hampshire Young Democrats, stated that it was their goal to set the precedent for how candidates engage with young people. As he said this, though, one only had to look up at the sea of gray hair in the seats to recognize the lack of youth in the audience. The Democrats may very well ride the participation of young voters to victory, but any sign of enthusiasm among college students was patently absent from this forum. 

Considering the relatively low name recognition of all three candidates, especially of Kiper, the forum was likely the first introduction to many of those in attendance. Warmington explained how her background as a first generation college student who had to work her way through college and “know what it’s like to worry about not having a roof over my head” has prepared her to “look through the lens of the working family.” She explained that affordable housing, addressing the “assault on public schools,” and stopping the “attack on reproductive freedom” are her main priorities. 

Kiper, who owns Jonny Boston’s International Restaurant in Newmarket, focused his introduction on the housing crisis. He explained his personal experience with the rising cost of living in the state and discussed the state’s aging population and the growing need to house them. All issues, he said, lead back to affordable housing.

Craig surveyed her experience in local government, starting from the School Board in Manchester all the way up to being Mayor from 2018 to 2024. She too focused on affordable housing and education, but emphasized the need for a governor who understands the challenges at the local level. 

When asked about climate policy, all three gave standard Democrat answers. Warmington declared that “climate change is an existential threat caused by human activity.” She mentioned her plan to achieve net-zero emissions and also insisted that climate change can be stopped while still adding jobs. Kiper stated that he would like to sue ExxonMobile for knowingly causing the climate crisis. Craig highlighted her efforts as mayor to transition away from fossil fuels. 

Warmginton, when asked by the moderators about a citizenship requirement to vote, insisted that Republicans are actively supporting voter suppression and that thousands of people would be disenfranchised by the bill to do away with the affidavit system. Apparently, the policy to require proof of domicile is too steep a mountain to climb for voters, and such a requirement is extremist “voter suppression.” 

The candidates also gave similar answers to questions about school funding, one of the most contested issues in New Hampshire politics. Craig mentioned that she signed the well-known and ongoing ConVal lawsuit, which argues that the state has failed to meet its constitutional obligations to provide adequate education. Warmington emphasized that she was only able to go to college because of a Pell Grant, and argued that New Hampshire is undermining its own future. She also took a swipe at popular target Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut, whose name elicited a chorus of groans from the audience. 

Again, all three gave fairly similar responses to questions about the housing crisis, which essentially boiled down to “build more housing.” Kiper mentioned multiple times his support for so-called tiny homes, Craig talked about her efforts as mayor to build more housing, and Warmington’s answer focused on building more units, ending the not-in-my-backyard mentality, and zoning reform. 

For those who follow New Hampshire politics fairly closely, the answers throughout the forum were hardly surprising. They were consistent with typical state Democratic policy, and the candidates hardly distinguished themselves from each other in any meaningful way. 

Still, there is an apparent split between the support for the candidates. Between the two major candidates, Craig and Warmington, one can expect very different bases of support. Craig is considered an establishment candidate, having been endorsed by various remnants of the state party apparatus, including former Governor John Lynch, former party chair Kathy Sullivan, and former Executive Councilor (and current congressional candidate) Colin Van Ostern, as well as Massachusetts Governor Maura Healy. Warmington has the support of what can be considered the state’s more progressive wing of the party, including many officials from the Upper Valley. Her endorsements include former Governor of Vermont Howard Dean and former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter. She also has the support of State Senator Becky Whitley, who is seen as the progressive candidate in her race for Congress, as opposed to the establishment-backed Van Ostern.

It is clear from the forum that Craig intends to rely on the support of the establishment. In nearly every answer she discussed her work as Mayor of Manchester, and along with the support of many state and local officials she has the backing of prominent labor and teachers unions. Warmington, despite being the sole Democrat on the Executive Council, has less support from the party machine. Her coalition will likely lie in the more rural, northern parts of the state. 

Despite the candidates diverging only slightly, if at all, in their responses to policy questions, it’s likely that these associations (progressive and establishment) will follow the candidates and be a key component of the race.

Additionally, one can understand why Warmington and Craig, two of the most prominent on the Democrats’ bench, just now decided to run for governor once Sununu was out of the picture. None of the candidates wowed with charisma, and frankly none are political stars in the making. Craig especially, but all of them to a degree, did not exhibit the confidence and readiness requisite for the office of Governor. Kelly Ayotte at least has the political experience and deep network of support that can make her a successful governor. Even though New Hampshire is trending leftwards, and Donald Trump’s place on the ballot will hurt Republicans in the general election, the race will certainly be one to watch.